Abstract:

Objective To predict the overall survival of castration resistant prostate cancer（CRPC）patients from Shanghai and the surrounding areas by Halabi nomogram. Methods A total of 228 patients with CRPC in Tumour Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University from August 2006 to December 2013 were enrolled. The overall survival was predicted and calculated by Halabi nomogram. The validity of the model was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Results The median overall survival of the cohort was 20.8 months（4.48 months）followed-up with 150 death events. The predictive accuracy of Halabi nomogram was 0.61（95％CI:0.51-0.73）. Predicted median overall survival was 16.4 months（6.31months）. Calibration plot demonstrated that the 1- and 2-year survival rate was remarkably underestimated by the nomogram. Conclusion The present validation study does not confirm the predictive value of Halabi nomogram in a contemporary community series and further studies with a large sample size to validate or develop nomograms for predicting survival in CRPC are necessary.